|The AMOC at 26°N from 2004 to 2012. |
How has it changed since then?
Perhaps you have a model that can calculate the AMOC? Or would you like to make a guess? Either way we would like to hear from you.
|RRS James Cook mug to be awarded to he winner of our competition|
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
AMOC(Sv) 17.8 20.1 19.5 18.0 17.5 12.9 16.7 17.5
The best estimates will be listed on our blog and if you win we will ask you for your address so we can send you your RRS James Cook mug (please don't post your address now).
The rules of the competition are:
1. Entires should be made by adding a comment to this post or by email to email@example.com with the subject "JC103 competition" and received no later than 31st May 2014. Alternatively you can tweet your entry using #rapidmoc.
2. Only one entry per person please.
3. The estimate closest to our preliminary calculation will be the winner. In the event of a tie a draw will be held to decide who will receive the RRS James Cook mug.
4. The Principal Scientist's decision will be final and no appeals will be considered
*Jon Robson and co-authros would probably wish us to point out that they were not making a prediction for a particular year but suggesting that the average trend will be downwards. So even if the AMOC goes up now that would not necessarily mean that they are wrong. We need to wait a few more years before we can judge that.
(1) Smeed, D.A., McCarthy, G.D., Cunningham, S.A., Frajka-Williams, E., Rayner, D., Johns, W.E., Meinen, C.S., Baringer, M.O., Moat, B.I., Duchez, A., Bryden, H.L., 2014. Observed decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 2004-2012. Ocean Sci. 10, 29–38.
(2) Robson, J., Hodson, D., Hawkins, E., Sutton, R., 2013. Atlantic overturning in decline? Nat. Geosci. 7, 2–3.